Despite a very bad start to the Nations League, the France team is still the No. 1 favorite in the World Cup, according to calculations by The Analyst site.
Is football an exact science? If this were the case, the Blues would not have too much to worry about in view of the next world Cup. According to calculations by The Analyst site, the France team is still the No. 1 favorite for the next World Cup, despite its recent setbacks in the League of Nations.
Read also: Qatar 2022: Bad news for the Blues
With a very precise 17.93% chance of winning the trophy, less than a one in five chance, Didier Deschamps’ men are ahead of Brazil by a short head (15.73%). Then follow Spain (11.53%), England (8.03%), Belgium (7.90%), the Netherlands (7.70%) and Germany (7.20%). ). Argentina (6.45%) and Portugal (5.11%) are the two other countries to exceed the 3% chance of victory.
ICYMI: We’re now down to 32 teams, and we’ve got our first 2022 World Cup predictions.
France to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup? 🤔🔮
— The Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) June 15, 2022
An easier route for France?
Between France and Brazil, the difference is mainly due to the more favorable table which seems to await the Blues. The rating of the Seleçao falls behind that of these Blues from the quarter-finals, the moment when Neymar and his teammates could cross paths with a team from group E, the toughest group in the competition on paper (Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica). This explains the small difference between France and Brazil.
How far will the Blues go?
The Analyst gives his predictions for the course of the Blues. The reigning world champions have a 93.9% chance of getting out of their group, a 67% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, a 47.3% chance of reaching the last four, as well as a 29.5% chance of chances of playing the final. And therefore a 17.93% chance of once again lifting the most coveted trophy on the football planet.
Mbappé’s France like Pelé’s Brazil?
Of course, there are plenty of other elements that call for caution regarding the chances of the Blues. First, the statistical model presented is unreliable. At Euro 2020, Italy had only been credited with a 7.6% chance of victory, recognizes The Analyst. And above all, a World Cup double has not been done since Pele’s Brazil, in 1958 and 1962.
In recent years, the world champion has especially been very frequently released… from the group stage. It’s happened four times in the last five editions, for France in 2002, Italy in 2010, Spain in 2014 and Germany in 2018. That’s not reassuring.